DEFAC

Background Detail for the Preparation of the March 2026 General Fund Revenue Estimates

What’s Inside

• PERSONAL INCOME TAX — Withholding
• PERSONAL INCOME TAX — Estimated
• PERSONAL INCOME TAX — Final Payments
• PERSONAL INCOME TAX — Refunds
• SUMMARY OF PERSONAL INCOME TAX COMPONENTS
• CORPORATE FRANCHISE TAX
• BUSINESS ENTITY FEES
• LLC’s / LP’s & UNIFORM COMMERCIAL CODE
• UNCLAIMED PROPERTY
• GROSS RECEIPTS TAX
• LOTTERY
• CORPORATE INCOME TAX
• REALTY TRANSFER TAX
• CIGARETTE TAX
• BANK FRANCHISE TAX
• INSURANCE TAXES & FEES
• HOSPITAL BOARD & TREATMENT
• PUBLIC UTILITY TAX
• ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGE TAX
• DIVIDENDS AND INTEREST
• OTHER REVENUES
• OTHER REFUNDS

Note: In October 2022, the Department of Finance implemented Phase Two of the new Integrated Revenue Administration System for Final and Estimated Personal Income Tax payments. Under the new system, Final and Estimated payments are combined into one category. However, for forecasting purposes, we will continue to treat them separately. As a result, the State’s accounting system does not reflect the adjusted year-to-date revenues presented in this document.

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PERSONAL INCOME TAX — Withholding

Mar-26

ESTIMATES

	FY 2025	FY 2026			FY 2027			FY 2028
	ACTUAL	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE
WITHOLDING	$2,018.2	2,142.9	$2,148.4	$5.5	$2,258.6	$2,247.2	($11.4)	$2,391.9	$2,39.8	($12.1)
Growth Rate	7.0%	6.2%	6.4%	0.3%	5.4%	4.6%	-0.8%	5.9%	5.9%	0.0%

TRACKING

		Tracking As Of:				Estimate if revenue follows trend:
	YTD	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE	Growth Needed to Hit Mar-26 Estimate	FY 2025	3 YR AVG.	5 YR AVG.
FY 2026	$1,434.7	5.9%	6.4%	0.5%	6.5%	$2,148.4	$2,161.0	$2,167.5
FY 2025	$1,347.8

ECONOMICS / DEMOGRAPHICS (percent change from previous year):

	FY 2025	FY 2026			FY 2027			FY 2028
	ACTUAL	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE
DE EMPLOYMENT	0.9%	1.3%	0.9%	-0.4%	0.7%	0.7%	0.1%	0.4%	0.3%	-0.1%
DE WAGE & SALARIES	5.4%	4.2%	3.9%	-0.3%	4.7%	4.3%	-0.4%	4.5%	5.2%	0.8%
REAL GDP	2.3%	2.1%	2.5%	0.4%	2.1%	2.3%	0.1%	1.6%	2.0%	0.4%

OTHER KEY CONSIDERATIONS

None

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PERSONAL INCOME TAX — Estimated

Mar-26

ESTIMATES

	FY 2025	FY 2026			FY 2027			FY 2028
	ACTUAL	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE
PIT – Estimated	$385.4	$385.0	$400.0	$15.0	$406.9	$422.8	$15.9	$446.4	$446.4	$0.0
Growth Rate	14.0%	-0.1%	3.8%	3.9%	5.7%	5.7%	0.0%	9.7%	5.6%	-4.1%

TRACKING

		Tracking As Of:				Estimate if revenue follows trend:
	YTD	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE	Growth Needed to Hit Mar-26 Estimate	FY 2025	3 YR AVG.	5 YR AVG.
FY 2026	$240.5	2.1%	7.8%	5.7%	-1.8%	$415.6	$398.2	$400.8
FY 2025	$223.0

ECONOMICS / DEMOGRAPHICS (percent change from previous year):

	FY 2025	FY 2026			FY 2027			FY 2028
	ACTUAL	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE
S&P 500	20.4%	15.9%	16.8%	0.9%	-5.8%	0.8%	6.6%	-3.3%	-3.4%	-0.1%
U.S. DIVIDENDS, INTERE	2.6%	3.2%	2.0%	-1.3%	6.7%	6.1%	-0.6%	6.1%	7.6%	1.5%

OTHER KEY CONSIDERATIONS

Estimate Tax Payments Due:	9/16/2025		1/15/2026		4/30/2026		6/16/2026
Tentative S-CORP TAX PAYMENT DUE:	9/16/2025	20.0%	12/16/2025	10.0%	4/15/2026	50.0%	6/16/2026	20.0%

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PERSONAL INCOME TAX — Final Payments

Mar-26

ESTIMATES

	FY 2025	FY 2026			FY 2027			FY 2028
	ACTUAL	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE
PIT – FINAL	$314.6	$293.4	$293.4	$0.0	$250.1	$250.1	$0.0	$261.7	$261.7	$0.0
GROWTH RATE	12.5%	-6.7%	-6.7%	0.0%	-14.8%	-14.8%	0.0%	4.7%	4.7%	0.0%

TRACKING

		Tracking As Of:				Estimate if revenue follows trend:
	YTD	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE	Growth Needed to Hit Mar-26 Estimate	FY 2025	3 YR AVG.	5 YR AVG.
FY 2026	$53.3	52.5%	41.2%	-11.3%	-13.3%	$327.1	$393.2	$351.7
FY 2025	$37.7

ECONOMICS / DEMOGRAPHICS (percent change from previous year):

	FY 2025	FY 2026			FY 2027			FY 2028
	ACTUAL	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE
S&P 500	20.4%	15.9%	16.8%	0.9%	-5.8%	0.8%	6.6%	-3.3%	-3.4%	-0.1%
U.S. DIVIDENDS, INTEREST & RENTAL INCOME	2.6%	3.2%	2.0%	-1.3%	6.7%	6.1%	-0.6%	6.1%	7.6%	1.5%

OTHER KEY CONSIDERATIONS

None

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PERSONAL INCOME TAX — Refunds

Mar-26

REFUND ESTIMATES

	FY 2025	FY 2026			FY 2027			FY 2028
	ACTUAL	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE
PIT – REFUNDS	($335.0)	($288.5)	($288.5)	$0.0	($267.3)	($267.3)	$0.0	($268.9)	($268.9)	$0.0
GROWTH RATE	17.0%	-13.9%	-13.9%	0.0%	-7.4%	-7.4%	0.0%	0.6%	0.6%	0.0%

TRACKING

		Tracking As Of:				Estimate if revenue follows trend:
	YTD	Dec-25	Mar-26	CHANGE	Growth Needed to Hit Mar-26 Estimate	FY 2025	3 YR AVG.	5 YR AVG.
FY 2026	($139.0)	-44.6%	-11.4%	33.1%	-16.0%	($296.7)	($381.2)	($361.4)
FY 2025	($156.9)

OTHER KEY CONSIDERATIONS

None

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SUMMARY OF PERSONAL INCOME TAX COMPONENTS

Mar-26	Fiscal Year 2025		Fiscal Year 2026				Fiscal Year 2027				Fiscal Year 2028
Revenue Category	Actual	Percent Change Over 24	DEFAC Dec-25	Percent Change	Revenue Sub-Committee Mar-26	Percent Change	DEFAC Dec-25	Percent Change	Revenue Sub-Committee Mar-26	Percent Change	DEFAC Dec-25	Percent Change	Revenue Sub-Committee Mar-26	Percent Change
Withholding
Estimated
Final Returns
Total
Refund Forecast
Net PIT